Schedules, Resutls and Probabilities

I added Schedules, Results and Probabilities to the individual team pages for each team. These include the date, opponent, opponent's RPI Forecast, Location, scores, probabilities of winning and the predicted spread. These probabilities (and spreads) are all derived from Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR and are used to generate the random wins and losses used in the 10,000 simulations each day. Basically, you can come up with probabilities of winning if you have a prediction of the spread and some sort of a standard deviation. Click on any team's name to see this new feature. Here is what Florida's looks like:

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Florida.html

As with everything else (except for the tournament projections), these are updated daily.

One more thing: The expected record can be easily calculated from the projections. If you make the assumption that the probabilities are independent across games, then you simply add up the probabilities which will give you the expected wins. The expected losses will be the total number of games minus the expected wins.

Thus, even if a team is favored win in each individual game, like UCLA, for example, when you look at them all as a whole, on average, UCLA will lose 5 out of the 17 remaining. Naturally, this all depends on the probabilities being correct and again, this is an expectation. UCLA could do better or worse in any given simulation (and in reality). But, what I am presenting is the best estimate. If you think your team will do better (or worse? What kind of a fan are you?) then simply look at the RPI Forecast broken down by end-of-season record and pick your favorite.