NCAA Basketball season is here again. Forecasts are now up and running at rpiforecast.com. Because the probabilities used in the simulations are based on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR, for the first few weeks of the season, those are tied to the starting ratings. Keep that in mind. Eventually, everything will be based only on games played this season.
One thing that I am implementing from the get-go is the RPI forecasts broken down by different end-of-season records. That way, if you disagree with what the projected W-L reccord is for your team, you can insert what you may think to be a better prediction and see what the resulting RPI forecast is. Another way of looking at it is: How many games does the team have to win to have an RPI above a certain number.
Click here for an archive of blog entries from last season
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