We've added a page that lists the probabilities for reaching each of the rounds of the tournament - along with winning it all - for all 68 teams.
The page is here: http://www.rpiforecast.com/tourneyprobabilites.html
There are two types of probabilites listed: UNCONDITIONAL and CONDITIONAL
You are probably most familiar with UNCONDITIONAL. That tells you the overall probability of a team reaching each of the rounds. The CONDITIONAL probabilities, however, tell you the probability that a team reaches a round given that it has already reached the previous round. For example, a team like UT-San Antonio may have a very low unconditional probability of reaching the Final 4, however, conditional on it having already reached the Elite 8, it will have a much higher probability. We'll update the webpage as we reach each new round with new probabilities. These will change as teams (and potential future matchups) are eliminated.
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2 comments:
Ryan, just wanted to let you know that Nebraska-Omaha is a D1 school this year. I hate to admit it as they'll bring down Nevada's RPI, but won't it cause discrepancies if they aren't included in your data?
Patrick,
I actually contacted the NCAA's official statistician about this. They are D1, but because they are transitional, they aren't included in the RPI nor are they post-season eligible.
Thanks for visiting!
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