Monday, February 21, 2011

Bracket Predictions

I've decided to switch up the at-large and seeding formulas a bit. I had been using an equation that includes conference affiliation and representation on the selection committee. However, just today, I switched to one of the models which does not take these into account. This was mainly because of the problem with the MWC teams seeds (BYU, SDSU, etc). Because the MWC has never been this good, it may not make sense to assume that the same "bias" would exist against them this season. Anyway, BYU immediately jumped to a 2 seed and SDSU to a 5 seed (the highest 5 seed).

http://www.rpiforecast.com/bracket.html

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

There seems to be a considerable Big East bias built into your projections. Of the top 8 seeds, 6 are from the Big East, really??? There is no way this is what the committee will come up on selection Sunday. You are the only one in the country that has Notre Dame and Syracuse as a #1 seed. Also, you are the only one that doesn't have Ohio St. as a #1 seed. I think your "formulas" need a little more work.

Anonymous said...

You have got this figured out man......publish this stuff, you blew Joe Lunardi out of the water!

Anonymous said...

Nice job! Last place on the Bracket project page. Back to the drawing board with those great formulas of yours.

Anonymous said...

Joe Lunardi - 310 Paymon score, you - 278. BTW, FOX was the winner with a Paymon of 331. Fox had 67 of the 68 teams picked, 37 correct seeds and 55 seeds within +/-1. You on the other hand had 65 teams picked, 21 correct seeds and 41 seeds +/-1.

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