Bracket Projections

I've started making projections of the field of 65 for the tournament. This is purely a statistical exercise and involves no "gut feeling", however, it is usually more accurate early on in the season than those that DO rely solely on gut feeling (Joe Lunardi, I'm looking at you ;-) ). Anyway, have a look. I use the "Dance Card" methodology along with the simulations to predict who will be in the field. Look through the blog archives to see how I've done in the past. I do not make any projections about seeds, just about who makes the cut.

If you see a team that is in the field that isn't eligible for post-season play, let me know. Here are the teams that I'm giving home court advantage to in the conference tournaments: Mercer (ASun), Siena (Metro Atlantic), UNLV (MWC), and Nevada (WAC). The same is true for those conferences that are held at the higher seed.

Here's the bracket:
http://www.rpiforecast.com/bracket.html

Here's the "Dance Card" site for an explanation of the dance card methodology:
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm