Updates

Today marks the first day of conference tournament play. The basic RPI Forecast doesn't include conference tournaments. For that reason, I added the forecasts that do include them which are updated a couple of times per week: http://www.rpiforecast.com/ct/index.html

Now that conference tournament season is upon us, I'll start updating that page more frequently (probably every day). The main page will only include conference tournament games that have already been played. If you want to see all of the possible outcomes along with the expected RPI for each scenario including conference touranments, go to the above link and click on your team. Next year, the forecasts which include conference tournaments will become the standard forecasts.

As explained in detail below, the seedings for conference tournaments are determined for each of the 10,000 simulated regular seasons, and a simulated tournament is run for each of the 10,000 simulations. By now, many of the conference tournament seeds are already set in stone. If a team does as expected in the conference tournament, their end of regular season RPI will typically be very close to their end of conference tournament RPI.