Bubble teams (and their fans) all over the country will be pulling for favorites to win the conference tournaments this week, especially when the favorite would otherwise likely get an at-large bid. We've already seen VCU lose in the CAA tournament. They are now definitely on the bubble with about a 40% chance of an at-large bid. They probably didn't burst anybody's bubble but their own.
The tournament that may very well burst a bubble is the MAC tourney. Kent State has a very strong case for an at-large bid even with a loss in the MAC tournament. I'd say they have about a 75% chance of an a bid if they don't get the automatic bid. No other MAC team has much of a case. However, Kent State only has a 25% chance of winning the tournament. In fact, Akron is slightly more likely to win based on Sagarin's PREDICTOR:
Team (Seed) Prob(Auto Bid)
Kent St. (1) 25.8%
Western Michigan (2) 18.0%
Akron (3) 26.7%
Ohio (4) 11.7%
Miami OH (5) 15.3%
Central Michigan (6) 1.3%
Eastern Michigan (7) 0.6%
Toledo (8) 0.3%
Bowling Green (9) 0.2%
Ball St. (10) 0.1%
Northern Illinois (11) 0.0%
Buffalo (12) 0.0%
So, there is basically a 75% chance that the MAC tournament will burst somebody's bubble (other than Kent State's). In no other conference tournament is it more likely than not that a team with no at-large bid chance will steal the automatic bid from a team that's a near lock for an at-large.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Updates
Today marks the first day of conference tournament play. The basic RPI Forecast doesn't include conference tournaments. For that reason, I added the forecasts that do include them which are updated a couple of times per week: http://www.rpiforecast.com/ct/index.html
Now that conference tournament season is upon us, I'll start updating that page more frequently (probably every day). The main page will only include conference tournament games that have already been played. If you want to see all of the possible outcomes along with the expected RPI for each scenario including conference touranments, go to the above link and click on your team. Next year, the forecasts which include conference tournaments will become the standard forecasts.
As explained in detail below, the seedings for conference tournaments are determined for each of the 10,000 simulated regular seasons, and a simulated tournament is run for each of the 10,000 simulations. By now, many of the conference tournament seeds are already set in stone. If a team does as expected in the conference tournament, their end of regular season RPI will typically be very close to their end of conference tournament RPI.
Now that conference tournament season is upon us, I'll start updating that page more frequently (probably every day). The main page will only include conference tournament games that have already been played. If you want to see all of the possible outcomes along with the expected RPI for each scenario including conference touranments, go to the above link and click on your team. Next year, the forecasts which include conference tournaments will become the standard forecasts.
As explained in detail below, the seedings for conference tournaments are determined for each of the 10,000 simulated regular seasons, and a simulated tournament is run for each of the 10,000 simulations. By now, many of the conference tournament seeds are already set in stone. If a team does as expected in the conference tournament, their end of regular season RPI will typically be very close to their end of conference tournament RPI.
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