An Undefeated Regular Season?

As of yesterday, there were 13 unbeaten teams in Division 1. Which one of these teams is most likely to finish the regular season undefeated? Well, to get an idea, I used Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR (what I use in my simulations) and Ken Pomeroy's Ratings to calculate the probabilties that each of the 13 teams will finish the regular season undefeated. Here are the results:

Using Sagarin's PREDICTOR:
rank Team Probability
1 Duke - one in 23 ( 4.2729% )
2 Kansas - one in 57 ( 1.7672% )
3 North Carolina - one in 154 ( 0.6509% )
4 Memphis - one in 334 ( 0.2991% )
5 Mississippi - one in 616 ( 0.1624% )
6 Texas - one in 1,797 ( 0.0556% )
7 Sam Houston St. - one in 3,820 ( 0.0262% )
8 Georgetown - one in 11,074 ( 0.0090% )
9 Washington St. - one in 26,243 ( 0.0038% )
10 Miami FL - one in 33,082 ( 0.0030% )
11 Pittsburgh - one in 33,801 ( 0.0030% )
12 Vanderbilt - one in 80,256 ( 0.0012% )
13 Clemson - one in 156,704 ( 0.0006% )


Using Pomeroy's Ratings:
rank Team Probability
1 Duke - one in 9 ( 11.7184% )
2 Kansas - one in 17 ( 5.7862% )
3 Memphis - one in 105 ( 0.9502% )
4 Mississippi - one in 1,440 ( 0.0694% )
5 Sam Houston St. - one in 3,087 ( 0.0324% )
6 Texas - one in 3,551 ( 0.0282% )
7 Georgetown - one in 4,830 ( 0.0207% )
8 Washington St. - one in 5,219 ( 0.0192% )
9 North Carolina - one in 6,088 ( 0.0164% )
10 Pittsburgh - one in 12,586 ( 0.0079% )
11 Clemson - one in 14,976 ( 0.0067% )
12 Miami FL - one in 17,175 ( 0.0058% )
13 Vanderbilt - one in 1,112,128 ( 0.0001% )


With the exception of North Carolina, the orderings are very similar. If you believe Ken Pomeroy's numbers, there is a decent chance that a team will run the table during the regular season. It is quite a bit less likely according to Jef Sagarin's numbers.